The 2014 gamble is an inspired year’s project (50 weekends so nearly a year) to see how taking risks works out. These risks are small risks in the scheme of things.
In 2013 I complained about the game Candy Crush and how micro-transactions open up “at risk” individuals to the dangers of gambling addiction, you can read the article here. You would be fair to claim that in part I’m a bit of a hypocrite for taking this project on. I am trying to prove that these gambles rarely pay off and that you should just go the conventional route of hard work and networking. If I am proved wrong by my endeavours I will be pleasantly surprised.
I’m not a Bible basher by any means. I’ve gambled a few times in my life and don’t dish out the hellfire. Ultimately gambling is a sin. For some people an “addictive personality” is a very negative personality trait and a true illness. For those of us with restraint, gambling can be an occasional piece of entertainment.
What about Risk?
Life is often about assessing and responding to risk. We take a bit of risk to improve our situation after we’ve calculated the possible outcome and weighed up the result.
There is a sliding scale between Extreme Risk Takers such as those found in the banking world (among whom some have been arrested) and Risk Averse (such as the Royal family).
Sometimes to reap a reward you have to put yourself in the risk zone and go against a conservative mindset to succeed.
I’m not talking purely business! Alternative examples include:
- Snowing off piste for the virgin snow unaware of shifting boulders and crevices under the skis
- Nabbing that rare dead butterfly at the edge of a cliff for the collection
- Playing a real game of Frogger whilst trying to get home at rush hour
We calculate the risk and roll the dice.
I am going to take a risk this year but a scientific one for the purposes of writing about it. I feel I swing on the risk averse side of the pendulum.
I’ve previously slated such services provided by SEOClerks and their shady ilk, yet I will court with those providers freely and unashamed in this project.
£100 is a fair wedge, 100 Brit Bucks, a Ton.
I am going to spend £100 on various “boosts” to try to get my site turning a profit on one hand as there is quite a lot you can do with £100. It works out at $164 at current exchange rates.
On the other hand:
- I am going to spend another £100 on the National Lottery.
I’m intrigued to see which gamble turns out better but I have an inkling of which one will do better in the long run. Which do you hedge your bets with?
Beyond paying for tickets there is little strategy needed for the National Lottery. I’ll be buying 1 ticket every Saturday for 50 Saturdays. Simple and elegant.
For what I describe as “Boosts” the lowest value on average is $4 from Fourer (A Fiverr clone). I have calculated that in order to keep pace with the Lottery I’d have to buy a boost every other week. Therefore on a fortnightly Sunday I will buy a Boost from a site like (or including) Fiverr. I may have surplus left to spend by the end of the year so to compensate I will buy slightly bigger boosts towards the end of the run.
I will know if the gamble paid off with Success Criteria. It is pointless setting a project in motion if you don’t know what the end goal is or what you are trying to achieve.
For the National Lottery the Success Criteria (the tipping point between profit and loss) will be if I make more in winnings than I spent in buying tickets. Therefore I have to be “UP” at the end of 51 weeks.
The amount to be classed as a success is £101 in winnings.
- Each Lottery ticket costs £2.
- Each ticket in addition to the variety of prize winnings from matching certain number combos also has a raffle ticket with a prize of £20,000.
- I will be partaking in the standard Lotto ticket rather than the Thunderball. The Thunderball has a higher chance of success but the prize total is considerably lower.
- I will be purchasing these tickets online.
For the Boost Success Criteria I have to drive enough traffic and conversions to make enough money from my Gig(s) on Fiverr. My current Gig isn’t doing very well since it launched in 2013. I may need to develop some other Gigs that are a bit more useful but overall I have to produce £101 in Gig sales in 51 Sundays time.
The amount to be classed as a success is £101 in gig profit. I have to sell 41 gigs @ $5 less $1 commission.
- Fiverr charges 20% so a standard gig will only produce $4 income. Gig Extras in excess of $5 also have this same commission percentage. I have to sell 41 gigs at $5 to make in excess of $164 at current exchange rate. This might change if I can add Gig extras considered useful to the buyer.
- To convert $ to £ I will most likely be hit with a conversion charge from PayPal. I will factor this later.
- I will be using a mix of micro-job sites for these boosts.
I will be reporting back on each quarter (April for Q1, July for Q2, October for Q3 and January for Q4). In each report, I will be detailing the boosts I purchased, what they were purchased for and how successful they were.
Why am I selling on Fiverr?
Currently this site is the most established. Yes it is quite possible that one of the clones may actually work out better and there are a big list of these. Fiverr has a big community already and going by my favourite strategy observation; “weight of number” will definitely contribute more favourably.